Stock Trading Using PE ratio: A Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling on Behavioral Finance and Fundamental Investment
abstractOn a daily investment decision in a security market, the price earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most widely applied methods being used as a firm valuation tool by investment experts. Unfortunately, recent academic developments in financial econometrics and machine learning rarely look at this tool. In practice, fundamental PE ratios are often estimated only by subjective expert opinions. The purpose of this research is to formalize a process of fundamental PE estimation by employing advanced dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) methodology. The estimated PE ratio from our model can be used either as a information support for an expert to make investment decisions, or as an automatic trading system illustrated in experiments. Forward-backward inference and EM parameter estimation algorithms are derived with respect to the proposed DBN structure. Unlike existing works in literatures, the economic interpretation of our DBN model is well-justified by behavioral finance evidences of volatility. A simple but practical trading strategy is invented based on the result of Bayesian inference. Extensive experiments show that our trading strategy equipped with the inferenced PE ratios consistently outperforms standard investment benchmarks.
Adaptive Robust Control Under Model Uncertainty
abstractIn this paper we propose a new methodology for solving an uncertain stochastic Markovian control problem in discrete time. We call the proposed methodology the adaptive robust control. We demonstrate that the uncertain control problem under consideration can be solved in terms of associated adaptive robust Bellman equation. The success of our approach is to the great extend owed to the recursive methodology for construction of relevant confidence regions. We illustrate our methodology by considering an optimal portfolio allocation problem, and we compare results obtained using the adaptive robust control method with some other existing methods.
Aftershocks in a complex system with catastrophes: Crash of currency exchange rate
abstractThe dynamical behavior of the currency exchange rate after its large-scale crash is studied. It is shown that, similarly to the case of the stock market crash investigated by Lillo and Mantegna [Phys. Rev. E 68, 016119 (2003)], the relaxation is characterized by a power law, which is in analogy with the Omori-Utsu law for earthquake aftershocks. The waiting-time distribution is found to also obey a power law. Furthermore, the event-event correlation is discussed, and the aging phenomenon and scaling property are observed. Comments are made on (non-)Markovianity of the aftershock process and on a possible relevance of glassy dynamics to the market system after the crash.
Online Adaptive Machine Learning Based Algorithm for Implied Volatility Surface Modeling
abstractIn this work, we design a machine learning based method, online adaptive primal support vector regression (SVR), to model the implied volatility surface. The algorithm proposed is the first derivation and implementation of an online primal kernel SVR. It features enhancements that allow online adaptive learning by embedding the idea of local fitness and budget maintenance. To accelerate our algorithm, we implement its most computationally intensive parts in a Field Programmable Gate Arrays hardware. Using intraday tick data from the E-mini S&P 500 options market, we show that our algorithm outperforms two competing methods and the Gaussian kernel is a better choice than the linear kernel. Sensitivity analysis is also presented to demonstrate how hyper parameters affect the error rates and the number of support vectors in our models.